Friday, May 22, 2009

The Stock Market is Still Way Over-Valued!

Check out this analysis by Mish and John Mauldin

On April 10, 2009, the total earnings estimate for all of the S&P 500 companies was a combined $28.51.   
"The S&P closed Thursday at 888. That's a richly priced PE [price/earnings ratio] of 31 [888/28.51= ~31]. Let's assume that earnings recover to $48. That's still a richly priced PE of 18.5. A bear market bottom might sport a PE of 10-12 but let's be generous and use 15.

15*$28.51 would put the S&P 500 at 382!
Let's be more generous and use an earnings estimate of $48.
15*$48 would put the S&P 500 at 720!

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No matter how you slice and dice things, fundamentally the stock market is very pricey."

Changes to text in bold.


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